Who Actually Profits From Every Litre You Buy at Bowser?
Trace every cent of your $2.52 per litre petrol from Middle East crude extraction to Australian service station pump. See profit breakdown.
You Paid $164 to Fill Your Car This Week. Here's Where Every Dollar Actually Went.
A 65-litre fill of ULP in any Australian capital city cost roughly **$164** in the last week of March 2026. That's up from about $110 six months ago — an extra $54 per tank, or $216 a month for a weekly fill.
Most Australians assume the money disappears into the pockets of oil companies and the government. They're half right. But the reality of who profits — and by how much — is more specific, more concentrated, and in some cases more alarming than the vague notion of "big oil" suggests.
We've traced the money from the wellhead to the bowser, using ACCC monitoring data, ASX filings, and government fuel pricing reports from March 2026. Here's where your $2.52 per litre actually goes.
The Anatomy of $2.52: Cent by Cent
Based on ACCC weekly monitoring data (25 March 2026), terminal gate prices, and the current Brent crude benchmark, here's the approximate breakdown of a litre of ULP at $2.52:
| Component | Amount (c/L) | % of Price | Who Gets It | |---|---|---|---| | Crude oil cost | ~88c | 35% | International oil producers (Saudi Aramco, UAE, US shale) | | Refining & shipping to Australia | ~36c | 14% | Refiners (Ampol, Viva) + Singapore refineries | | Federal excise | 52.6c | 21% | Australian Government | | GST (10% on everything above) | ~17c | 7% | Australian Government | | Wholesale margin | ~8-12c | 4% | Wholesalers (Ampol, BP, Viva, Mobil) | | Retail margin | ~8-15c | 4% | Service station operator | | Shipping, insurance, terminal costs | ~15c | 6% | Shipping companies, terminal operators | | **Total taxes** | **~70c** | **28%** | **Government** | | **Total industry** | **~165-180c** | **~68%** | **Supply chain** |
The single largest beneficiary is the crude oil producer — companies and state-owned enterprises in the Middle East, the US and elsewhere that extract the oil from the ground. At $104/barrel (Brent), that's about 88 cents of your $2.52.
:::info The 52.6c excise is a flat rate — it doesn't change when oil prices spike. That means government's share as a percentage of the total price actually falls during a crisis. At $1.60/L, excise is 33% of the price. At $2.52/L, it's 21%. :::
The Crude Oil Producers: Brent Up 55% in a Single Month
Brent crude — the international benchmark that ultimately drives what Australians pay — hit an intraday high of **US$119.50 per barrel on 9 March** when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered fears of a Strait of Hormuz shutdown. It has since pulled back to around **US$104**, but March 2026 is on track to be Brent's **steepest monthly rise on record**, up roughly 55%.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since 2 March, disrupting approximately **17.8 million barrels per day** of oil flows — about 20% of global supply. Even with partial reopenings and IEA stockpile releases, the supply disruption has been severe enough to keep prices elevated.
Who benefits? The world's largest oil-producing nations and their state-owned companies. Saudi Aramco, the UAE's ADNOC, and US shale producers are all seeing dramatically higher revenues. Every US$10 increase in the oil price adds roughly **8-9 cents per litre** to what Australians pay at the pump.
Australia can't control this. We produce only about 300,000 barrels of crude per day domestically — a fraction of our consumption — and most of it is exported because it doesn't suit our refineries' configurations.
The Refiners: Ampol and Viva's Crisis Windfall
Australia has just **two operating refineries**: Ampol's Lytton in Brisbane and Viva Energy's Geelong in Victoria. Between them they produce about 20% of Australia's fuel needs. The rest comes from mega-refineries in Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
Refining margins — the gap between the cost of crude oil and the price of the refined product — have surged during the crisis. Asian refining margins hit approximately **US$43.50 per barrel** in March, the highest since 2022. For context, Ampol's Lytton refinery averaged **US$10.34 per barrel** for the full year 2025.
Ampol's results tell the story. The company's EBIT surged **32% to $947 million** in FY2025, with underlying net profit jumping **83% to $429 million**. The Lytton refinery swung from a **$42 million loss** the prior year to a **$163 million profit**. And that was before the March 2026 price spike.
Here's the uncomfortable part: both Ampol and Viva receive **government subsidies** to keep refining. Under the Fuel Security Services Payment, refiners receive taxpayer support when their margins fall below $15.90 per barrel. With margins currently above US$40, they're not receiving subsidies right now — but the mechanism means Australian taxpayers underwrite the downside while shareholders capture the upside.
:::warning Ampol's share price is up roughly 18% in March 2026. Viva Energy has seen similar gains. Both companies benefit directly from the same crisis that's costing average Australians an extra $200+ per month at the pump. :::
The Wholesalers: Alleged Cartel Behaviour Under ACCC Investigation
This is where the story turns from uncomfortable to potentially illegal.
On 26 March 2026, the ACCC took the extraordinary step of **publicly announcing** an enforcement investigation into Australia's four major fuel wholesalers — **Ampol, BP Australia, Mobil Oil and Viva Energy** — over alleged anti-competitive conduct in diesel supply.
ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said it was not the watchdog's usual practice to publicly announce investigations, but "the significance of the issue" warranted it. The probe was triggered by **more than 500 reports** of potential price gouging from consumers and businesses.
The specific allegation: during the worst fuel crisis in decades, these four companies have been **cutting off diesel supply to independent distributors** servicing regional and rural Australia. The independents — the smaller fuel companies that supply country towns, farms and remote communities — say they simply can't get stock.
The impact has been devastating. In NSW alone, **107 stations ran out of diesel** and **42 ran completely dry** by mid-March. Farming towns like Robinvale reported the worst disruption in decades. NSW Farmers president Xavier Martin said farmers are being told by their bulk suppliers that they're dry — with no more fuel coming.
:::danger The government has doubled maximum penalties for cartel behaviour from **$50 million to $100 million per offence**. The investigation is at a preliminary stage, and no findings have been made — but the ACCC's decision to go public signals the severity of the allegations. :::
The Retailers: Squeezed or Gouging?
The person behind the counter at your local servo is, statistically, the one making the least from this crisis.
ACCC data shows the average gross retail margin across the five largest cities was **17.9 cents per litre** in the December 2025 quarter. That sounds reasonable until you account for what it has to cover: land transport from terminal to station, staff wages, rent, electricity, insurance, credit card fees, and compliance costs.
The ACCC estimates the wholesale sector's net profit has averaged just **1.7 cents per litre** over the past 12 years. Retail margins are similarly thin in normal times.
But "normal times" is the key phrase. The ACCC has flagged that during the March crisis, approximately **40 stations** hiked prices rapidly in ways that appeared to exploit the crisis — bolstering their retail margin at the expensive end of the fuel price cycle.
The fuel price cycle itself is worth understanding. In cities like Sydney and Melbourne, petrol prices follow a regular pattern — they spike on one day, then gradually drop over 1-2 weeks before spiking again. During a crisis, the spikes get sharper and the drops get shorter. Retailers who time their purchases to the bottom of the cycle and sell at the top can extract significantly wider margins than the averages suggest.
:::tip Use [FuelCalc's price data](/) to track the fuel cycle in your area. Filling up at the bottom of the cycle instead of the top can save 15-25 cents per litre — even during a crisis. :::
The Government: $70 Cents of Every Litre and Counting
The federal government collects approximately **70 cents per litre** in taxes on every litre of petrol sold — 52.6c in excise plus roughly 17c in GST (which is calculated on the total price including excise — the controversial "tax on tax").
At current consumption levels, fuel excise alone raises roughly **$13 billion per year** for the federal budget. It's one of the most reliable revenue sources in the tax system because demand is relatively inelastic — people drive regardless of price.
The excise cut announced today — halving it to 26.3c/L for three months — will cost the budget **$2.55 billion**. To put that in perspective, that's about 20% of annual excise revenue foregone in a single quarter.
Here's the political tension: the government loses money during a fuel crisis (in relative terms), while oil producers and refiners gain. But the government also has the power to act — through excise policy, windfall taxes, export controls and strategic reserves — and has historically been reluctant to use those levers aggressively.
Australia has **no windfall profits tax** on oil and gas companies. The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) is widely regarded as ineffective — in 2023-24, it raised just **$1.8 billion** despite the industry generating tens of billions in revenue. Some of Australia's largest LNG exporters have paid zero PRRT for years.
The Biggest Contradiction: We Export 83% of Our Gas While Running Out of Fuel
This is perhaps the most galling detail in the entire fuel supply chain.
Australia is the **world's largest or second-largest LNG exporter** (trading places with Qatar depending on the year). We produce around 150 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually. But **83% of that gas goes to export** — shipped to Japan, China, South Korea and other Asian markets under long-term contracts.
Meanwhile, Australia may soon need to **import LNG** to meet domestic gas demand. An import terminal at Port Kembla south of Sydney could begin receiving LNG tankers by June 2026 to avoid a projected winter gas shortage in southern states.
Woodside Energy's shares jumped roughly **33% in March 2026** as oil and gas prices surged. Santos climbed about **25%**. Both companies are expanding export capacity — Woodside's North West Shelf extension, Santos' Barossa project — while Australia faces its worst domestic energy supply crisis in decades.
The policy mechanism that's supposed to address this — the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) — has been triggered but is widely considered too weak. Gas producers can meet their domestic obligations with minimal volumes while continuing to prioritise lucrative export contracts.
:::warning Australia holds just **34 days of combined fuel reserves** — well below the IEA-recommended 90 days. We export 83% of our gas. We import 90% of our refined fuel. The crisis isn't just about the Iran conflict — it's about decades of policy choices that prioritised exports over domestic energy security. :::
The Scorecard: Winners and Losers of Australia's Fuel Crisis
| Who | Crisis Impact | Detail | |---|---|---| | Middle East oil producers | Massive windfall | Brent up 55% in March, revenue surge across OPEC+ | | Woodside Energy | Shares +33% | Record production, expanding export capacity, 80% earnings-to-dividends | | Santos | Shares +25% | Barossa LNG project ramping, production to rise 30% by 2027 | | Ampol (refiner) | FY25 profit +83% | Lytton refinery swung from $42M loss to $163M profit | | Viva Energy (refiner) | Margin surge | Asian refining margins at US$43.50/bbl, highest since 2022 | | Federal Government | Loses $2.55B (excise cut) | But still collecting ~$70c/L in taxes on remaining volume | | Singapore refineries | Higher margins | Process most of Australia's imported fuel, benefit from tight supply | | Regional fuel retailers | Squeezed or dry | 107 NSW stations ran out of diesel, independents cut off by majors | | Australian motorists | Extra $200+/month | Average household fuel bill up $50-55/week | | Farmers | Critical shortages | Bulk diesel supply cut off, machinery sitting idle, harvest at risk | | Trucking/freight | Cost surge | Diesel above $3/L in some regions, flow-through to grocery prices |
What Can You Actually Do About It?
You can't change global oil prices or fix Australia's refining deficit. But you can make informed decisions that reduce the amount you hand over to each link in this chain.
### 1. Track the Real Price — Not Just the Number on the Board
Use [FuelCalc](/) to calculate what your trips actually cost at current prices. Knowing your per-kilometre fuel cost helps you make better decisions about which trips are worth driving and which might be cheaper by public transport.
### 2. Buy at the Bottom of the Price Cycle
Fuel prices in Australian capital cities follow predictable cycles. In Sydney and Melbourne, the cycle runs roughly 14-21 days. Filling at the bottom versus the top can save **15-25 cents per litre** — that's $10-16 per fill, or $40-65 per month.
### 3. Use the Excise Cut Window Strategically
From 1 April, prices drop by 26.3c/L. But they'll snap back on 1 July. Plan major trips and bulk purchases (if you have tank storage) before the cut expires.
### 4. Report Suspected Gouging
The ACCC has a formal fuel price monitoring program and wants to hear from consumers. If your local station's prices seem wildly out of step with nearby competitors or the wholesale price, report it via the ACCC website or your state's fair trading body.
### 5. Think About the Long Game
This crisis has accelerated the economics of EVs, hybrids, and public transport. A household spending $400+/month on fuel may find that the maths on switching vehicles has fundamentally changed. Use [FuelCalc's EV vs petrol calculator](/) to run the numbers for your situation.
Tags: fuel prices, fuel crisis, who profits fuel, ACCC investigation, Ampol, Viva Energy, Woodside, Santos, price gouging, fuel supply chain, refining margins, crude oil, petrol prices